Whoever said "trash talk" doesn't pay?
Obviously, whoever it was never watched Governor Romney as he parlayed the black art of opponent decapitation over the political airwaves in Iowa and NH this past week. Attack ad after unrelenting attack ad--one embarrassing day followed by another. It seemed at times like the Romney attack machine simply couldn't quench it's voracious appetite for blood.
Huckabee conservative or McCain independent--you've gotta be wondering: Is this really the man the Neo-cons find so much to cheer about? And what of all those "honesty first" voters still out there who learn almost daily of some new reason to distrust the flip-meister from Massachusetts--errr, I mean Utah, errr, or is it Michigan?
Should they simply ignore all the Romney character questions and "candor gaps" in hopes of "lower taxes" and "fewer regulations" somewhere down the line? After all, unlike the average Neo-con who's quite adept at flip-flopping himself (having leaped from the left to the right with the greatest of ease), Main Street Republicans still believe a person "means what he says"--and vice versa.
Now that Governor Romney's back in the early primary hunt, it's time to stop daydreaming about "what could have been" and start asking some hard political questions like . . .
What Happens now in SC and Florida?
Until Romney's withering TV barrage this past week, the gathering wisdom was that Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain takes NH. Now, with Mitts' unexpected resurgence, a new scenario has suddenly surfaced--namely Romney wins Iowa or NH or both.
Either outcome leaves only Michigan (on Jan. 15) and then SC and Nevada (on Jan. 19) for Huckabee and McCain to regroup before a final push in late Jan/early Feb.--following what would be back-to-back losses for one or both candidates. (You can throw Mayor Giuliani in the same boat too while you're at it.)
Now if that isn't bad enough for you Huckabee and McCain supporters, things just keep getting bleaker from then on. The reason? In two words, "time" and "money."
Because of all the Primary schedule changes the States made this year, it's quite likely the Republican nomination will be decided by mid-Feb at the latest, as Florida gathers on Jan. 29, followed by Maine on Feb. 1 and finally, twenty clincher contests on Feb 5-- "Super Tuesday". And who does this newly contracted schedule favor? You got it--the guy with all the money!
Money will Decide Who Wins on Super Tuesday
Despite their other faults, past Primary line-ups shared at least one redeeming feature: they spread out the selection process over time, giving each candidate (including the one with the fewest campaign funds) the opportunity to make his case before the American voter. They also gave him some precious time to replenish his financial coffers and recover from minor mishaps and faux pas.
But that's not going to happen this time around; there's just not enough time between Primary A and Primary B. And unless the current scheduling problems are fixed, it won't be happening again in the foreseeable future either!
Any guess what else is going to happen under the new Primary scheduling system we've stumbled ourselves into? That's right, whoever has the most money to spend on TV ads is going to trump whoever's got the best character and foresight for leading our great nation!
Can't happen, you say? Well, just watch and weep as the best-funded campaigns start dominating the vote tallies and evening headlines starting next week!
Who gains most from the new Primary schedule?
And who might that be? According to the U.S. Federal Election Commission's latest tabulations (as of Dec. 30), Gov. Romney ($61.6m) has amassed the most campaign contributions by far--followed by Giuliani ($46.7m) and then McCain ($31.4m).
Where was Gov. Huckabee, you may be asking? Well, if you're a Huckabee supporter, you really don't want to know. Alright, if you insist, Huck was between Tancredo ($3.5m) and Thompson ($1.1m) at barely over $2m.
Now, of course, those figures have changed since the numbers were last tallied. But the basic picture remains the same. And that's even before you factor in Romney's considerable personal fortune just waiting to be added to all those contributions from the boys at Goldman Sachs.
Unless something happens to slow Romney's advance
So what's left for the other Republican candidates should Mitt steal the show in Iowa and/or NH?
Not much, unfortunately, if you're a Huckabee supporter. My guess is Pastor Huckabee will be back strumming his bass guitar by Feb 1--unless he can somehow regain his lost momentum in Iowa.
As for McCain, "cactus John" is likely to fare a little better--at least for a while. I say that for two reasons. First, unlike Huckabee, McCain actually has some financial reserves to draw upon. And second, should Huckabee be forced from the race, McCain is the likely benefactor of at least some of the Arkansas Governor's pro-life support.
Why only "some", you ask? Because, unlike Huckabee, who's managed to paper over many of his weaknesses on illegal immigration, the Arizona Senator has nowhere to hide from mainstream conservatives on the issues of "amnesty" and "border security."
Who's left?
So who's left? Well, let's see. First, there's Giuliani, who seems more content with getting a good Winter tan in Florida than actually competing for primary votes. Seriously though, the mayor does still sport a respectable warchest.
The real question is "can he pull the trigger" and actually work his way back into the race? It seems clear the former mayor will not gain much from a Huckabee departure. He's too hopelessly "soft" on mainstream issues (abortion, gay marriage, etc.) dear to social conservatives. But should McCain exit the race before him, it's conceivable some of McCain's "national security" supporters will find their way over to "Rudy's camp". We'll just have to wait and see.
That leaves only Fred Thompson and Ron Paul as credible Romney opponents. With Huckabee gone, a case could be made for Thompson as the sole remaining hope for social conservatives. But after Fred's curious "fire in the belly" comments this past week, it's unclear what it would take for the Senator's campaign to get off it's lethargic arse and get to work.
That said, Thompson's prospects as a "white horse" candidate obviously improve the less congested the race becomes. The Tennessee Senator has also shown some promise as a fundraiser ($12.7m by FEC numbers), but as with his lackadaisical campaigning style, he needs to pick up the pace there as well.
From a strictly fundraising perspective, Ron Paul would seem to offer Romney his greatest challenge . The blogosphere is electric with news of the massive warchest the Texas Congressman is assembling. And that's not all there is to fear if you're a Romney supporter. Of all the candidates (including the Dems), no one has developed a more enthusiastically committed grassroots organization than Dr. Paul.
The real concern for Paul supporters is whether the Congressman can overcome the equally real fears his antiwar rhetoric evokes in a campaign so heavily focused on national security. At this point, at least, my guess is he cannot.
What about possible alliances?
If you're Mitt Romney, you've got to be feeling good at this point. Looking out over the next three weeks, the man from Neo-con seems to be ensconced in the proverbial catbird's seat. Of course, that assumes he'll be competing with the other candidates one-on-one.
Which brings up the possibility of potential alliances in this already strange and ever-changing Presidential primary campaign.
There was considerable speculation last week about one such possible alliance between the Huckabee and McCain camps. The basic idea there was that Huckabee would keep Romney pinned down in Iowa while McCain worked him over in NH--and visa versa. If a Huckabee-McCain alliance is indeed at hand, my only question is "What happens after NH?"
To remain viable on the eve of Super Tuesday, both Huckabee and McCain desperately need a win in SC. To think each would sacrifice himself in the interest of stopping Romney, seems a bit far-fetched at this point.
Unless, of course, a deal can be struck that puts the two campaigners on the same Presidential ticket. The only question then would be "Who heads that ticket?"--Huckabee or McCain. Stranger things have happened, but a Huckabee-McCain ticket is still a long-shot at this point. In fact, looking down the road a piece, a Romney-McCain ticket probably makes as much if not more sense than a McCain-Huckabee one. Only time will tell.
Politics and strange bedfellows
As the old proverb says, "Politics makes strange bedfellows."
So don't be surprised when the candidates start vetting their alliance options once the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries start settling. The pace will quicken as the MI results reveal who's strong and who's weak in the rust belt--and who still has a shot to win the top spot on the Republican ticked.
By the time the Republican candidates reach SC and Nevada (Jan. 19), it should be pretty clear who still can win the top spot on the Republican ticket and who might help the frontrunner(s) make it through the grueling Super Tuesday that lies ahead.
Get ready for take-off
So if you're a Romney Republican, sit back and enjoy the race. If not, I wish there was something I could say to pick up your spirits.
In either case, fasten your seatbelts. It's looking to be another Grand Old Party!
Which raises an interesting question: 
